The New Zealand stock market limped into the new year with the NZSE 50 recording a small loss of -0.2% for the month of December. Despite falling -6.5% over the last quarter the NZSE 50 was up a very respectable +8.8% for the year, an increase of +16.6% from its February nadir.
The Australian market (ASX 200) rose 3.0% in November whereas small cap stocks were generally out of favour with the Small Ords falling -1.2%, and the NZX 50 down -0.9%. There was talk that the banking sell-off has been overdone, with financials the leading sector (+6.0%) while a number of our managers highlighted the market's rotation out of higher quality and defensive stocks trading at higher P/E multiples and into lower quality cyclical stocks trading at lower multiples.
Global markets fell in October on the back of a resurgence of Donal Trump after the FBI decided to re-open their case against Hilary Clinton. Global equities fell -1.7% in USDs and the USD weakened.
In September equity markets were subdued with the largest move being a -2.6% fall in the Japanese market. US stocks fell -0.1%, Europe gained 0.2%, the UK was up +1.7%, Emerging Markets +1.3%, Australia +0.4% and NZ fell -0.5%.
Globally, most major markets eked out small positive returns in August, although in the majority of instances this was more than offset by strength in the NZD.
Australasian equity markets shrugged off the after effects of June's Brexit vote with the NZX50 and Australian All Ords posting returns of 6.5% and 6.3% respectively. Australian small cap companies roared back to life in July with the S&P/ASX Small Ords (representing the 101st to 300th largest members in the S&P/ASX 300 index) rising by 8.6%....
The NZ share market continued its strong performance relative to other developed markets. Despite a -2% fall in June, the NZ share market has risen +9.1% in 2016, and its closest rival (in NZDs) was the S&P500 (-1.8%).
The old adage "Sell In May and Go Away" has so far proved poor advice as the NZX50 continued to go from strength to strength, rising 3.2% for the month, taking year-to-date gains to 11.3% and ending the month at a new all-time high of 7,039.
Markets were generally firmer again in April, but the NZD strengthened against both the AUD and USD, which dampened returns from offshore markets.
The NZ share market rose +8.5% in March, its biggest monthly gain since March 2006. Over the quarter NZ shares rose +6.8% and over six months +20.7%. In the last five years they have almost doubled (+96.3%).
If you looked at market indices at the end of February, you could be forgiven for thinking it was a fairly ho-hum month. The NZ share market rose 0.9%, the Australian market fell -1.5% and global equities were down just -1.0%.
It has been a fascinating start to 2016. Volatility has returned to financial markets. Credit, currency and equity markets have been reacting to fears of a China meltdown, oil companies and their debt have been sold aggressivley, banks have been caught up in the extrapolation of negative scenarios where bearish commentary suggests banks as large as Deutsche Bank could default on their lower tier debt obligations.
I was interested in a Bloomberg article written on January 1st 2016 entitled, "Easy Money Hard to Find in 2015 with Markets Cooled by China, Fed".
Equity markets globally were generally firmer in November with the notable exception of Australia and emerging markets, both exposed to energy and hard commodity prices.
Equity markets globally rallied in October after a steep sell-off in the September quarter. Market turning points like this are always a good test of manager skill, particularly when you are a long/short manager.
After a strong start to the quarter in July, volatility returned to markets in August and we saw heavy falls in equities locally and offshore. The NZ share market was less affected than others, probably due to the RBNZ's rate cut and the expectation of more to come, but it still fell -5.5% in the second two months of the quarter.
After an extended period of rising markets, August was a timely reminder of the risks which exist in listed securities. In August many quality companies fell heavily, and broad markets, which most investors are exposed to through low cost index funds, ETF's also fell heavily (ETF's stands for Exchange Traded Funds - basically index funds which trade on the share market).
July was a very volatile month for global equities against the backdrop of a possible Greek exit and market turbulence in China. When neither of these developed into 'crises', risk was back on the table.
How times change. In Saxe's March quarterly, the NZ economy was 'rocking'. The one negative, to which I referred, was the limited impact the huge fall in dairy prices appeared to be having.
A weaker NZD provided a tail wind for offshore investments in May. The Kiwi fell -3.5% against the AUD, and -6.6% against the USD, falling to levels last seen in 2010.
In April we saw the NZ dollar re-test its highest level ever against the Australian dollar, twice trading into the 0.90's. This was because of continued weakness in the Iron Ore price and the market's expectation that the RBA would lower interest rates to 2.0%, their lowest level ever.
There was wide divergence in global equity markets in March and in the quarter. The divergence was due to the different stages of the economic cycle these various economies are at.
Equity markets rallied strongly in February and currencies were on the move. The rally in Australian equities which began mid-January gathered steam in February, propelled by renewed global demand for Australian shares and the yield they offer, on the back of an 11% fall in the AUD/USD.
The NZ and Australian share markets started the year strongly, gaining 3.2% and 3.3% respectively while the US share market (S&P500) fell -3.1%.
Picking up on our last quarterly report, we have seen a number of our expected scenarios play out. The Auckland housing market has continued to rise strongly driven by lack of supply and favourable election result averting 'capital gains tax'.
The main drivers of markets in November were the continued fall in commodity prices, including oil, on the back of weaker demand from China and in the case of oil, OPEC overproducing in an effort to run higher cost competitors out of business, drastic monetary measures from European leaders to try and combat slow growth....
October was a 'game of two halves'. The following chart shows the S&P500, and you can see the fall which started in September, continuing through to October 16th, before the market turned and rose 8.3% by month end.
Share markets around the world were generally weaker in September and in the September quarter. The MSCI All Countries Gross index was down -3.2% and -2.2% respectively.
Both the NZ and Australian equity markets underperformed global equities in August. They rose 1.1% and 0.7% respectively and over the last year, have risen 15.0% and 14.4%.
July was a negative month for most equity markets as geo-political conditions worsened in the Ukraine and Middle East.
The quarter ending June 30 2014 was another positive one for investors. The World's equity markets rose +5.3% in USD terms which was +3.9% in NZDs.
There is an adage in the investment world which says "sell in May, and go away", most likely derived from the start of the Northern summer, where investors bank their profits, and go to the beach.
Global equities rose 1.0% in April, taking them to a 2.5% gain so far in 2014. In NZDs, global shares rose 1.62% in April, but a stronger NZD means that year to date, the return on global equities has been -2.3%.
It is appropriate to start this quarterly report looking at the stellar performance of the NZ dollar over the past quarter and year. As I have said in previous reports, the stronger NZ dollar is the dividend we all receive from the strength and health of our economy.
February began very badly with equity markets continuing to fall. On February 6th a headline caught my eye, "Why I'm not buying in to this market correction", an article in the UK Financial Times quoting Alistair Mundy from Fintech Capital.
Welcome to 2014! Markets surprised us yet again, falling quite sharply in January. The exception was the NZ share market, which rose 2.9%.
In September global equities rose 8.3%, but this was largely offset by a 7.4% rise in the Kiwi dollar. NZ shares were again a very good place to be with a gain of 4.3%, compared to a rise of 1.6% for the ASX200 (Australia). The NZ dollar gained 2.6% against the AUD so for NZ investors, the Australian equity market fell -0.90%.
In August we saw a correction in global share markets partly due to developments in the Middle East (Syria), partly due to capitulation in some emerging markets, and partly due to concerns over rising interest rates as the Fed steps back from its stimulatory monetary policies.
In the June quarter we finally saw a break in the NZ dollar. Having strengthened in April to close at its second highest end of month level ever, (0.8562), negative news flows out of China, combined with Bernanke’s announcement regarding a ‘tapering’ of Fed easing, caused a sharp reaction from global investors.
The NZ share market took a break in December, rising just 0.4%, versus a +3.2% rise in the Australian market and +1.9% for global equities.
The New Zealand dollar firmed again in September as commodity prices rose, (skim milk jumped 11% in September).
